EUR/GBP News, Oct. 18-22, 2010

EUR/GBP

The pair last week was quite unstable: the opening price of the euro against the pound last Monday, Oct. 11 was 0,8769, and on Friday, Oct. 15 it reached the closing price of 0.8738. This week, we observe the opposite tendency of growth – this Monday the pair opened at 0.8721 and is currently at 0.8788.

Here’s what Bloomberg reported on Monday about the sterling outlook this week:

“The pound may decline to $1.5535 as investors anticipate further asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, by the Bank of England in early 2011, according to BNP Paribas SA.

‘Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes will reveal the first steps towards further QE measures in the U.K.,’ analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker in London wrote in a note to clients today. “Pound-dollar is already breaking lower through initial support and is now sitting on up trendline support at the $1.5835 level. A break below here will open downside pressure towards the $1.5535 area.”

Tuesday

CBI Industrial Order Expectations, 11:00 a.m. GMT. CBI=Confederation of British Industry. In a survey, about 550 manufacturers are asked to rate the relative level of order volume expected during the next 3 months. Usually, the higher the number, the better for the economy, but this month the expectations are for a decrease from -17 to -19.

BOE Governor Mervyn King, 7:50 p.m. GMT. BOE=Bank of England. The BOE Governon Mervyn King is due to speak at the Black Country Chamber of Commerce, in Dudley. This event is of a very high impact because as head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person.

Wednesday

MPC Meeting Minutes, 9:30 a.m. GMT. MPC=Monetary Policy Committee. This is the detailed record of the BOE MPC’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates , and offering clues on the outcome of future votes. The vote is reported in an ‘X-X-X’ format – the first number is how many voted to increase rates, the second number is how many voted for a rate reduction, and the third is how many voted to hold rates. The forecast is the same as the current values – 1-0-8.

Public Sector Net Borrowing, 9:30 a.m. GMT. This index measures the difference in value between spending and income for public corporations, the central and local governments during the previous month. A positive number indicates a budget deficit, and a negative number indicates a surplus. The predictions are for 14.2B as the current is 15.3B.

Thursday

Retail Sales m/m, 9:30 a.m. GMT. The index is the primary indicator of consumer spending, and is of a very high impact. The forecast is for an increase this month – from

-0.5% to 0.4%.

Prelim Mortgage Approvals, 9:30 a.m. GMT. The index measures the number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month. It is a leading indicator of housing market demand. Despite last month’s rise to 47K, this month the forecast shows a decrease again – to 44K, which will be the lowest value the index has ever had.

Inflation Report Hearings, tentative. During these hearings the BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The event is of a high impact.

MPC Member Posen Speaks, 10:15 a.m. GMT. MPC=Monetary Policy Committee. The external BOE MPC Member Adam Posen is due to speak at the Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation and Australian National Bank, in Vienna. The event is of a high impact.

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